During the parliamentary debate on Thursday, May 9, 2024, Lord Cashman queried His Majesty’s Government about their representations to the Ugandan government concerning its Anti-Homosexuality Act. This session witnessed a notable discussion, especially from Lord Bellingham, who highlighted the rise of Joel Ssenyonyi, the new Leader of Opposition in Uganda. Ssenyonyi’s emergence marks a significant shift in Ugandan politics.
Lord Bellingham emphasized the potential for Ssenyonyi to bring much-needed change to Uganda. He urged the Foreign Office to arrange a meeting with Ssenyonyi, describing him as a beacon of hope for the country’s political future. “Will the Minister not agree that one thing that could make a really big difference to this appalling situation would be a change in regime and free and fair elections? He will have noted that the European Parliament concluded that the last elections were neither free nor fair and, in fact, were violent. What more can we do to ensure there is multi-party democracy? Will he find time to meet the outstanding new leader of the opposition, Joel Ssenyonyi, who is a brave young politician who deserves our support?” Bellingham stated.
The UK’s actions are impacting Bobi Wine significantly. By replacing Mathias Mpuuga with Joel Ssenyonyi, Bobi Wine might have transitioned from one challenging situation to another. Ssenyonyi poses a more formidable challenge than Mpuuga ever did.
Despite his short tenure as Leader of Opposition, Ssenyonyi has made notable strides, drawing significant international attention, particularly from the Commonwealth. This achievement eluded Mpuuga during his three-year tenure. Political analysts suggest this rapid rise comes with substantial risks for Bobi Wine.
The pressure on Bobi Wine is intensifying as Ssenyonyi’s growing influence threatens his foreign support base. This burgeoning rivalry is likely to create a significant divide as both leaders vie for attention and resources.
When Mpuuga handed over power to Ssenyonyi a few months ago, he cautioned him about the immense challenges ahead. Mpuuga warned that the new role would test Ssenyonyi’s resilience against threats from the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) government, parliamentary leadership, and even within his own party.
“I do pity you,” Mpuuga remarked. “But it’s a relief that you have the thick skin that it will take to face this. You will need to strengthen your back. There are people out there who think that that office has a drawer full of money which you just pull out. Even some of the NUP members will try to fight you.”
With the UK and other international powers shifting their support from Bobi Wine to Ssenyonyi, analysts foresee a significant internal conflict within the National Unity Party (NUP). This internal strife is expected to extend to the grassroots level, exacerbating the rivalry.
Bobi Wine believed that by removing Mpuuga, he was eliminating a major obstacle, assuming he could easily manage the politically inexperienced Ssenyonyi. However, Ssenyonyi is emerging as a formidable force, reminiscent of the Biblical David poised to challenge and potentially overcome the Goliath.
